Explicando la preparación ante riesgos hidrometeorológicos. Un estudio exploratorio en México
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Este estudio explora como los constructos de la Teoría de la Motivación Protectora afectan las conductas de preparación para afrontar riesgos hidro-meteorológicos condicionadas a la confianza en el apoyo del gobierno, la vulnerabilidad social del individuo y la experiencia previa con una amenaza natural. Los datos de una encuesta en línea aplicada a residentes de dos municipios costeros mexicanos se utilizaron para dar apoyo empírico al modelo conceptual desarrollado. Los resultados analíticos del modelado con ecuaciones estructurales indican que una alta confianza en el apoyo de las autoridades no tiene un efecto significante en las conductas de prevención, pero afecta negativamente la autoeficacia para enfrentar el peligro en los individuos socialmente vulnerables. Adicionalmente, las conductas de preparación son estimuladas por factores de riesgo o afrontamiento dependiendo de la experiencia previa con una amenaza hidro-meteorológica. Estos hallazgos proponen: 1) manejar mejor las expectativas de los residentes en desventaja social con relación a la asistencia del gobierno para que mejoren su habilidad para autoprotegerse en caso de un peligro natural, y 2) contrarrestar la percepción de menor riesgo de los residentes que están expuestos regularmente a advertencias de amenazas hidro-meteorológicas. La principal limitación del estudio es la muestra pequeña con fines especiales que se utilizó para validar empíricamente el modelo sugerido. Un estudio extensivo basado en una muestra probabilística de comunidades costeras de México es recomendable para confirmar los hallazgos de esta investigación exploratoria.
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